The latest Quarterly
Forecast from the Canadian Real Estate Association is short and sharp. The association has made significant
downgrades to its outlook for this year and 2026.
Major Revisions
“Since CREA briefly
paused forecasting at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, this latest CREA
forecast constitutes the largest revision in between quarterly forecasts on
record going back to the 2008-2009 financial crisis,” the report says.
Tariffs Trigger
Uncertainty
The realtors place
the blame squarely on the trade turmoil emanating from the United States. “With buyers increasingly fleeing to, or
remaining on, the sidelines amid tariff uncertainty, and with the associated
economic damage only beginning, sales have continued to fall. Prices in some
parts of the country are following suit.”
Sales and Price
Growth Stall
CREA expects the
national average home price will slip by 0.3% on an annual basis to about
$689,000 this year. That amounts to
about $30,000 less price growth than what was forecast in the January
report. The slowdown will likely be led
by actual price declines in British Columbia and Ontario. Others provinces have had their projected
price increases trimmed back into the 3.0% to 5.0% range.CREA is now
forecasting 2025 sales volumes will be virtually the same as 2024 with just
under 483,000 (-0.02%) residential properties trading hands. That is a significant reduction from the 8.6%
increase forecast in January.
Prices & Sales
Linger Lower for 2026
For 2026 CREA expects
national home sales will improve by 2.9%, but remain below the 500,000 mark for
the fourth straight year. The national
average price is forecast to edge up by 1.2% to $696,000 in 2026.